SASSA grant budget postponement: What NOW?

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The SASSA grant budget postponement this week has caused chaos for millions of social-welfare beneficiaries. These residents are planning their entire year around the 2025 increases but are no closer to knowing what their grants will be. In a never-before-seen event in South Africa, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s Budget Speech had to be postponed to Wednesday 12 March 2025.

The main sticking point was a planned two-percent increase in value-added tax (VAT), which was wholly opposed within the Government of National Unity (GNU). The Rand has been in free-fall ever since and economists are inevitably asking tough questions about the true health of the South African economy.

SASSA GRANT BUDGET POSTPONEMENT

SASSA grant budget postponement
This week’s SASSA grant budget postponement has had a massive knock-on effect to millions of South Africans. Image: File

Meanwhile, John Steenhuisen (DA) said preventing a VAT increase (to 17%) was a victory for the people, in spite of inconvenience the SASSA grant budget postponement caused. He said the 2025 budget should be ‘anchored in economic growth rather than increased taxes’. While Gayton McKenzie (PA) said the Finance Minister ‘graciously took note of everything that was said’ against his 2025 Budget.

Nevertheless, Minister Gondongwana’s big challenge is to ‘strike a balance between the interests of the public, economic growth and financial sustainability’. And, quite clearly, the SASSA grant budget postponement throws whatever thinking he had into sharp relief. In response to the debacle, economists have labelled the ANC as ‘reckless’ and ‘asleep to the risks’ of a 2% VAT increase.

WHAT NOW FOR SASSA RECIPIENTS?

SASSA grant budget postponement
The man of the week, the month, the year is embattled Finance Minister Godongwana, who will have all eyes on him when he finally gives his 2025 Budget Speech. Image: File

However, for the country’s poor, the SASSA grant budget postponement brings no further clarity to long-awaited South African Social Security Agency increases. Just five-weeks away from April disbursements, and no one knows the definitive amounts Old Age, Childcare, Disability and War Veterans will receive for the year. Worse still, clients still using the Postbank Gold card have had little to no respite, despite the Black-card deadline moving to Thursday 20 March 2025.

However, even with the SASSA grant budget postponement, we’ve analysed historical trends to give you a well-informed projection of what 2025 increases may be. In light of the challenges facing the National Treasury, we believe they will be modest and loosely linked to inflation and the ANC’s ‘pro-poor’ strategies. According to the minister’s mid-term budget statement (MTBS) in October 2024, there’s a 3.6% increase (R266 billion) in social-welfare spending for the current year.

  • 2023/24: R250 billion
  • 2024/25: R266 billion
  • 2025/26: R246 billion
  • 2026/27: R259 billion

PREDICTED INCREASES

SASSA grant budget postponement
South Africa does offer one of the most comprehensive social-welfare systems on the African continent. Image: File

Nevertheless, looking at historical patterns, what will social welfare payments in April 2025 most likely be? Well, between 2020 and 2024, SASSA grants have seen an annual increase of between 4.5% and 5.5%. Likewise, annual SASSA grants have generally increased at the same rate as the national minimum wage each year, which might provide a crumb of comfort to stricken beneficiaries.

Therefore, while still unconfirmed following the SASSA grant budget postponement, we anticipate 5% increases this year:

  • SASSA Older Persons Grants (aged 60 to 74) currently: R2 190. Estimated 2025 value: R2 290 in April 2025 plus a further R10 to R2 300 in October 2025.
  • SASSA Older Persons Grants (75 and older) currently: R2 210. Estimated 2025 value: R2 310 in April 2025 plus a further R10 to R2 320 in October 2025.
  • SASSA Disability and Childcare Dependency currently: R2 190. Estimated 2025 value: R2 290 in April 2025 plus a further R10 to R2 300 in October 2025.
  • SASSA War Veterans currently: R2 190. Estimated 2025 value: R2 290 in April 2025 plus a further R10 to R2 300 in October 2025.

WHAT ABOUT CHILDCARE GRANTS?

SASSA grant budget postponement
The DA says a SASSA grant budget postponement could in fact be the best thing for the nation’s poor. Image: File

The most expensive grant in the budget is SASSA Child Support, disbursed to more than 13-million parents monthly. In fact, if a child is loaded onto the SASSA Child Support system from birth, they will cost government more than R135 000 until they are 18-years old. Nevertheless, here are our SASSA Childcare estimations this year:  

  • SASSA Child Support currently: R530. Estimated 2025 value: R560 in April 2025.
  • SASSA Child Support Top-Up currently: R250. Estimated 2025 value: R265 in April 2025.
  • SASSA Foster Care currently: R1 180. Estimated 2025 value: R1 260 in April 2025.
  • SASSA Social Relief of Distress (SRD) will remain unchanged at R370 in 2025.

KEY CONSIDERATIONS

Furthermore, key considerations must include inflation rates and government budget constraints. Likewise, global economic instability in the face of Presidnet Donald Trump’s sanctions against South Africa will play a crucial role. Then there’s the country’s worryingly high unemployment and consumer inflation index. All of which will make the official announcement of SASSA grant increase in 2025 crucial for millions living near the poverty line.

HOW DO YOU THINK SASSA GRANTS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A POSTPONED BUDGET?

SASSA grant budget postponement
Share your thoughts in the comments section below … Image: File

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